A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
